Sample reading · September 2026
11 of 27 core indicators in the red.
17 of 40 overall, counting every indicator. This is this week's real reading, as subscribers see it summarised. The dashboard adds every indicator's dial, history chart, direction and release dates.
The overall picture
Readings from the check on 26 Sep 2026, 9:36 PM New York time. Each indicator shows its source's latest release.
Overall
11 of 27 core indicators in the red
Average 20-year rank
65 / 100
Orange. The average 20-year rank of the core indicators: 0 means every one at its green end, 100 every one at its red end.
Most extreme reading
30-year Treasury yield
5.36% percent
Red. Higher than 99% of readings in the last 20 years. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
One category, as members see it
Category
Rates and bonds
1 of 3 core indicators in the red
77 / 100
Orange · average 20-year rank
30-year Treasury yield
5.36% percent
Red · Higher than 99% of readings in the last 20 years
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Core consumer price inflation
2.45% year-on-year
Orange · Higher than 69% of readings in the last 20 years
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
10-year minus 3-month yield
0.86 pts percentage points
Orange · Lower than 61% of readings in the last 20 years
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Flagged this week
Indicators are flagged when they enter the red, cross into a new band, or move towards red faster than 90% of past 6-month moves.
Asset valuations · Q2 2026
Stock market value to economy
255.65% Red
Flag: 6-month move towards red among the fastest 10% in 20 years.
Higher than 98% of readings in the last 20 years.
It has not read this high before in data going back to October 1947.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Energy and commodities · 22 Sep 2026
Diesel minus crude spread
$115.41 Red
Flag: 6-month move towards red among the fastest 10% in 20 years.
Higher than 99% of readings in the last 20 years.
It has read this high only since September 2026, in data going back to June 2006.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Artificial intelligence · Q2 2026
Big tech capital spending ÷ operating cash flow
81.81% Red
Flag: 6-month move towards red among the fastest 10% in 20 years.
Higher than 98% of readings since 2012.
It has not read this high before in data going back to April 2012.
Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, EDGAR company filings.
Past episodes describe what happened then. They are not a forecast of what happens next.
See every indicator, its history chart and its next release date.
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