All categories · 27 core indicators
11 of 27 core indicators in the red
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40 indicators across 12 categories, each set against its own 20-year history and updated each day as sources publish.
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Step 1
Trusted data sources
40 market and economic indicators, collected and checked for you.
Step 2
Checked twice a day
7am and 6pm New York time, updated each day as sources publish.
Step 3
Today against 20 years
A coloured dial shows where today's reading ranks against the last 20 years.
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History line
The last times it read the same, and what happened in markets then.
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This week's reading
11 of 27 core indicators in the red.
17 of 40 overall, counting every indicator.
Readings from the check on 26 Sep 2026, 9:36 PM New York time. Each indicator shows its source's latest release.
Overall
11 of 27 core indicators in the red
Average 20-year rank
65 / 100
Orange. The average 20-year rank of the core indicators: 0 means every one at its green end, 100 every one at its red end.
Most extreme reading
30-year Treasury yield
5.36% percent
Red. Higher than 99% of readings in the last 20 years. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
| Category | In the red | All five bands |
|---|---|---|
| Asset valuations | 2 of 2 | |
| Household and business borrowing | 0 of 3 | |
| Financial sector leverage | 1 of 2 | |
| Funding and liquidity | 0 of 2 | |
| Rates and bonds | 1 of 3 | |
| Currencies and carry trade | 0 of 1 | |
| Energy and commodities | 3 of 4 | |
| Geopolitics and war | 1 of 3 | |
| Policy shocks | 1 of 1 | |
| Sentiment and positioning | 1 of 1 | |
| Artificial intelligence | 1 of 3 | |
| Economy and jobs | 0 of 2 |
Flagged this week
Asset valuations · Q2 2026
Stock market value to economy
255.65% Red
Flag: 6-month move towards red among the fastest 10% in 20 years.
Higher than 98% of readings in the last 20 years.
It has not read this high before in data going back to October 1947.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Energy and commodities · 22 Sep 2026
Diesel minus crude spread
$115.41 Red
Flag: 6-month move towards red among the fastest 10% in 20 years.
Higher than 99% of readings in the last 20 years.
It has read this high only since September 2026, in data going back to June 2006.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Artificial intelligence · Q2 2026
Big tech capital spending ÷ operating cash flow
81.81% Red
Flag: 6-month move towards red among the fastest 10% in 20 years.
Higher than 98% of readings since 2012.
It has not read this high before in data going back to April 2012.
Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, EDGAR company filings.
Past episodes describe what happened then. They are not a forecast of what happens next.
Questions
What it is, and what it isn't.
- Does it tell me what to buy or sell?
- No. It describes where each indicator stands against its own history. The decisions are yours.
- Does it predict the market?
- No. Indicators describe conditions, and readings can stay in the red for years.
- How often does it update?
- Every source is checked twice a day, at 7am and 6pm New York time. Each indicator updates when its source publishes: some daily, some monthly or quarterly.